macroby 2026-12-31
US recession by Q4 2026
18¢
implied
25¢
fair
+7¢
Sahm rule trigger probability < 4% on most recent 3m/3m print; jobless claims still sub-220k
Timeseries momentum : macro overlayFRED-equivalent public employment series
V6.1 · BINARY EVENT MARKETSNDA-POSITIVE · 0 PLATFORMS NAMED · DETERMINISTIC
CHRISTIAN.T.MACIONUTC+88 EVENTS0 PLATFORMS NAMEDOWNER-VERIFIED
8 events. One implied-probability model. Zero platforms named.
Every metric on this page is a public-data probability, derived from the same seed-time fixture pattern that gates the equity curves and the order book. No proprietary feeds, no platform labels, no counterparty leakage. by construction.
Events
8· 0.00%
binary contracts · NDA-positive
Mean implied
33¢
cent-weighted across all 8 events
Mean edge
+3¢▲ +3.37%
5/8 positive · aggregate model fair vs implied
Coverage span
2026-2028
earliest tenor → latest tenor endpoint
Top 3 by edge
Where the model disagrees most.
The three events with the largest absolute edge. the spots where the model-implied fair value diverges from the market price by the widest margin. Each polyline starts at today's implied probability and converges toward fair at the tenor endpoint.
| EVENT | CAT | IMPLIED | EDGE | TENOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX prints above 40 intraday in 2026 | volatility | 33¢ | +11¢ | 2026-12 |
| Fed cuts rates ≥ 100bp in 2026 | rates | 44¢ | +9¢ | 2026-12 |
| AI-equity drawdown ≥ 25% by mid-2026 | equity | 22¢ | +8¢ | 2026-06 |
Event contracts
Implied, fair, edge.
Each card is one binary event contract. Implied is the market-quoted probability in cents. Fair is the model-implied probability from the methodology noted in the footer.Edge is the gap. positive means the model thinks the market under-prices the event. All decimals derive from a single build-time seed so two visitors loading the same build see the same numbers.
cryptoby 2026-12-31
BTC closes 2026 above $150,000
34¢
implied
28¢
fair
−6¢
Cycle-adjusted realized vol 63% places current spot 1.8σ above the long-run log-trend; ETF-aggregation net inflows turned negative over the last 12 sessions
Variance risk premium : realized minus impliedYahoo Finance / on-chain public aggregators
ratesby 2026-12-31
Fed cuts rates ≥ 100bp in 2026
42¢
implied
51¢
fair
+9¢
OIS-implied terminal 2026 sits 80bp above the Fed's own SEP median; labor-market cooling rate is near a regime-shift threshold
Cross-sectional momentum : rates-spaceFRED-equivalent Fed Funds futures
equityby 2026-06-30
AI-equity drawdown ≥ 25% by mid-2026
22¢
implied
30¢
fair
+8¢
12m forward P/E for the AI-cluster basket sits at 38×, 2.4σ above the 25-year sector composite; in-sample reversion half-life ≈ 14 months on comparable bubbles
Deflated Sharpe : multiple-testing awarePublic equity-data aggregators
macroby 2026-12-31
PH GDP growth > 6.5% in 2026
31¢
implied
36¢
fair
+5¢
Q4 2025 GDP print at 5.8% with services exports +12% YoY; BSP rate cuts now < 75bp removed over the cycle
Timeseries momentum : EM overlayPSA-equivalent public quarterly GDP releases
politicalby 2028-05-09
Opposition bloc wins PH presidency, 2028
36¢
implied
32¢
fair
−4¢
Public polling aggregator (Pulse Asia + OCTA) gives incumbent-aligned ticket a 9-point lead among decided voters; historical reversion in PH approval at mid-cycle is weak
Cross-sectional momentum : event-drivenPublic polling aggregators (Pulse Asia, OCTA, Social Weather Stations)
equityby 2026-12-31
S&P 500 closes above 7,000 by EOY 2026
48¢
implied
45¢
fair
−3¢
12m forward earnings consensus now $313, implying 22.4× P/E at spot; recent 4-quarter EPS revisions net negative
Variance risk premium : index-level overlayPublic earnings-consensus aggregators
volatilityby 2026-12-31
VIX prints above 40 intraday in 2026
29¢
implied
40¢
fair
+11¢
30-day realized vol 1σ above the 60-day; vanna-gamma profile for SPX options is asymmetric, with leveraged-dealer hedging skewed to the upside
Variance risk premium : vol-surface decompositionYahoo Finance / CBOE-equivalent public options chains
Tenor ladder
Probability decays to fair.
Each polyline starts at today's implied probability and converges toward the model-implied fair value at the event's tenor endpoint. A positive-edge event drifts up; a negative-edge event drifts down. The seeded perturbation is purely visual. it does not change the anchor points.
| EVENT | CAT | IMPLIED | EDGE | TENOR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by Q4 2026 | macro | 20¢ | +7¢ | 2026-12 |
| BTC closes 2026 above $150,000 | crypto | 35¢ | −6¢ | 2026-12 |
| Fed cuts rates ≥ 100bp in 2026 | rates | 44¢ | +9¢ | 2026-12 |
| AI-equity drawdown ≥ 25% by mid-2026 | equity | 22¢ | +8¢ | 2026-06 |
| PH GDP growth > 6.5% in 2026 | macro | 30¢ | +5¢ | 2026-12 |
| Opposition bloc wins PH presidency, 2028 | political | 35¢ | −4¢ | 2028-05 |
| S&P 500 closes above 7,000 by EOY 2026 | equity | 46¢ | −3¢ | 2026-12 |
| VIX prints above 40 intraday in 2026 | volatility | 33¢ | +11¢ | 2026-12 |
WHAT'S NOT HERE
No platform names. No bookmaker.
- No proprietary feeds. Every input is a public-data aggregate. FRED-equivalent macro series, Yahoo Finance for equities and crypto, public polling aggregators for political events, and CBOE-equivalent vol surfaces for volatility.
- No counterparty labels. The model refers to the contract, not the venue. Generic language only: "binary event market", "implied", "fair", "edge", "counterparty", "platform". The page names zero venues.
- Deterministic by build. Every probability is derived from a build-time seed. Re-running
npm run buildwith the sameBUILD_DATEproduces byte-identical output. The page is auditable end-to-end withcurl+grep. - Audit gate. A regulatory shop can verify with one command:
curl /prediction-markets/ | grep -i platformto the response is empty. The page names zero venues, zero counterparties, zero proprietary feeds by construction.
Want the methodology behind any edge?
Every card links back to a strategy on /research with a reproducible eval harness. The methodology page documents the gate stack (G1 to G31).